Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:40:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2A
0x2ae3…372a
weather · 461 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$34 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses226 / 228
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)454 / 461
History coverage23d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day55.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 454 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$32
14 days−$37
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Yes 46¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 10? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Sentinels - Map 2 Winner Sentinels 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner JD Gaming 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 1? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Valorant: Division One vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winner Division One 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Shopify Rebellion Black 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 23? No 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 10? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 10? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 31? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 31? No 84¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 4? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$25 +182%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 −$4 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$7 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$2 +31%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -14%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$4 +180%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +53%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 -34%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -70%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $11 +$1 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $11 $0 -3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 90% +$8
sports 7% −$21
crypto 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 27m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 88¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 82¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $9 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -1.9% -11.2% 45% 32% -5.1%
≤30d 454 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 33% -9.7%
≤90d 454 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 33% -9.7%
all 454 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 33% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover55.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 33% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 21% -18.3%
15% -32.5% 14% -26.2%
20% -39.1% 10% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.57 · official $8.57 (match) · 1349 history records