Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:29:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2A 0x2ae2…dde3 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$130 (+13%) realized +$139 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$96
14 days+$168
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$46
tech 21% +$20
other 19% +$56
sports 18% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +8.4% -2.0% 62% 62% +14.9%
≤30d 10 +10.3% -0.2% 70% 60% +10.6%
≤90d 10 +10.3% -0.2% 70% 60% +10.6%
all 10 +10.3% -0.2% 70% 60% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 60% +10.6%
10% -9.8% 40% -0.0%
15% -18.5% 30% -9.7%
20% -26.5% 20% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$6 · ×4.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.47 per $1 lost it wins $10.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized+$139
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 17
History coverage11d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 34¢ 70¢ $30 $62 +$32 (+107%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 39¢ 44¢ $39 $44 +$4 (+12%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 32¢ $40 $7 −$33 (-83%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 16¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots Jun 21 $20 +$13 +64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 +$16 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $83 +$17 +20%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $30 −$14 -45%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$32 +158%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $164 +$36 +22%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $201 +$20 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $200 +$52 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.91 · official $161.91 (match) · 36 history records