Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:42:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
2A 0x2ae2…e62e sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 641d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-7%) realized −$123 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$1
sports 17% −$66
economics 2% −$25
other 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +86.6% +68.8% 67% 67% +32.5%
≤30d 3 +86.6% +68.8% 67% 67% +32.5%
≤90d 3 +86.6% +68.8% 67% 67% +32.5%
all 8 +7.4% -2.8% 38% 25% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 25% -16.6%
10% -12.1% 25% -24.5%
15% -20.6% 25% -31.8%
20% -28.4% 25% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$30 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

641d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage641d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 58¢ 78¢ $76 $101 +$25 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$18 +226%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $25 +$33 +134%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Jan 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 18 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? Apr 17 $545 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? Apr 04 $246 −$1 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? Apr 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.31 · official $101.31 (match) · 20 history records