Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2A 0x2ae1…e985 politics 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$884 (-3%) realized −$884 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%8W / 38L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$683per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$13
30 days−$982
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$24
other 34% −$935
economics 4% −$2
sports 3% +$57
world 3% +$8
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -8.4% -17.2% 4% 0% -14.3%
≤90d 46 +3.1% -6.7% 17% 13% -12.1%
all 46 +3.1% -6.7% 17% 13% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 13% -12.1%
10% -15.7% 13% -20.5%
15% -23.8% 11% -28.2%
20% -31.3% 11% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$876) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$28 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$884
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage78d
Avg bet$683
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $272 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,450 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $909 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $643 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,736 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,006 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $964 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $703 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-02? May 25 $924 −$924 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 20 $34 +$30 +90%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 19 $49 +$44 +90%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $752 −$1 -0%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 21 $44 +$31 +70%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $2 +$3 +188%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,553 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $817 −$2 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $16 +$5 +29%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 09 $41 +$32 +79%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 06 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $754 −$1 -0%
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks Apr 05 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 04 $792 +$8 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $571 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $572 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $874 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $876 5h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $675 5h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $676 9h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $272 28h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $272 30h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $679 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $680 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $907 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $909 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $642 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $643 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $658 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $659 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $612 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $613 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $835 11d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $836 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $851 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $852 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $875 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $876 14d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $881 14d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $883 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $693 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $694 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,004 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,006 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records