Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2adc…0afa other 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,686 (+5%) realized +$1,686 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate73%66W / 24L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$147
14 days−$172
30 days−$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$1,617
sports 7% −$236
world 2% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.6% -1.8% 50% 50% -0.7%
≤30d 15 -9.2% -17.9% 60% 47% -14.8%
≤90d 51 -16.0% -24.0% 63% 47% -12.8%
all 90 +8.6% -1.8% 73% 62% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 62% -5.4%
10% -11.2% 43% -14.4%
15% -19.8% 23% -22.7%
20% -27.6% 12% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +38% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$214 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,686
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses66 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage196d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $303 −$56 -19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $304 +$95 +31%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $402 −$4 -1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $500 +$112 +22%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $402 +$35 +9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $202 −$154 -76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $500 −$497 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $403 +$105 +26%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $202 +$88 +43%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $500 +$99 +20%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $304 −$199 -66%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $403 +$123 +30%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $204 +$15 +8%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $403 +$134 +33%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $402 +$97 +24%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $122 +$97 +80%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $403 +$21 +5%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 May 09 $402 +$91 +23%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 09 $302 +$77 +26%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $303 +$30 +10%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $303 +$12 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $436 −$412 -94%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,004 +$214 +21%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $493 +$142 +29%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $500 −$409 -82%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $500 +$102 +20%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $500 +$42 +8%
Will Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $300 −$291 -97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $500 −$330 -66%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $496 +$178 +36%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $499 +$178 +36%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $500 +$202 +40%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $461 +$237 +51%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $500 +$36 +7%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-07? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06? Apr 07 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-28? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Apr 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-14? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-10? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Apr 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $500 +$32 +6%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $500 +$78 +16%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 06 $500 +$113 +23%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $500 +$68 +14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $500 +$214 +43%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $100 +$20 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 59¢ $246 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 71¢ $303 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $399 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $398 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $402 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $612 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $500 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $202 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $437 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 85¢ $402 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 16¢ $48 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 80¢ $500 16d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? SELL Yes 93¢ $509 18d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 73¢ $403 18d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $290 19d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 19d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $599 20d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 83¢ $500 20d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 21¢ $104 21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 21d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $526 24d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 76¢ $403 24d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $219 24d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 24d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL No 99¢ $537 27d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 74¢ $403 27d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $499 33d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $402 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 192 history records