Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$2,123

7 days+$992

14 days+$2,630

30 days+$3,826

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	Yes	22¢	0¢	$200	$5	−$195 (-98%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?	Jun 10	$2,949	−$1,518	-52%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 10	$514	−$29	-6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 10	$514	−$22	-4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 10	$1,890	−$87	-5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 10	$514	+$19	+4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 10	$514	−$54	-11%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 10	$3,075	−$252	-8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 10	$2,036	−$180	-9%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$103	−$103	-100%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Jun 08	$1,000	−$462	-46%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Jun 08	$590	+$577	+98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Jun 07	$2,602	+$1,954	+75%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	Jun 07	$1,481	+$380	+26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06?	Jun 06	$711	+$769	+108%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$2,028	+$1,638	+81%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	May 26	$1,500	+$507	+34%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	May 22	$495	+$690	+139%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

world 43% +$1,552

other 31% +$373

sports 24% +$1,735

crypto 2% −$29

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	BUY Yes	22¢	$200	17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?	SELL Yes	20¢	$1,431	33h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	SELL Yes	51¢	$910	33h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$486	33h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$492	33h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	16¢	$500	33h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	10¢	$532	33h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$459	33h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?	BUY Yes	44¢	$670	33h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	16¢	$670	33h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?	BUY Yes	43¢	$944	33h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	38¢	$910	33h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	BUY Yes	52¢	$913	33h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	38¢	$947	34h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?	BUY Yes	42¢	$235	34h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?	BUY Yes	36¢	$600	34h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?	BUY Yes	38¢	$500	34h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	16¢	$698	39h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	40¢	$2,036	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	2¢	$103	3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$514	3d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	28¢	$538	3d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	52¢	$1,000	3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL Yes	91¢	$3,642	4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY Yes	59¢	$752	4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY Yes	36¢	$1,000	4d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	SELL Alexander Zverev	100¢	$1,861	4d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	BUY Alexander Zverev	79¢	$1,481	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06?	SELL Yes	99¢	$1,480	5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06?	BUY Yes	47¢	$711	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)+7.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+5.1%	-5.0%	36%	29%	-4.7%
≤30d	17	+19.1%	+7.8%	47%	41%	+5.9%
≤90d	17	+19.1%	+7.8%	47%	41%	+5.9%
all	17	+19.1%	+7.8%	47%	41%	+5.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover1.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.8%	41%	+5.9%
10%	-2.6%	41%	-4.3%
15%	-12.0%	29%	-13.5%
20%	-20.6%	29%	-22.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.