Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ad7…f2e4 other 41 markets active 3d ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23 (-17%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$6
sports 36% −$21
crypto 14% −$10
politics 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -15.8% -23.8% 44% 41% -22.9%
≤30d 27 -15.8% -23.8% 44% 41% -22.9%
≤90d 41 -21.1% -28.6% 46% 39% -24.9%
all 41 -21.1% -28.6% 46% 39% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 39% -24.9%
10% -35.4% 29% -32.1%
15% -41.7% 22% -38.7%
20% -47.4% 17% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage60d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +59%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $4 −$1 -35%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$3 +134%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -43%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $9 $0 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $12 −$2 -16%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $8 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +36%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during N Apr 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $1 +$1 +55%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 76¢ $10 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $2 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $2 4d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 24¢ $1 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $2 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $2 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? SELL No 100¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 90¢ $2 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? SELL No 100¢ $6 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 4¢ $0 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $2 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records