Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ad6…31af world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+3%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% $0
other 26% $0
politics 4% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 1% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 12% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 14 -6.9% -15.8% 14% 0% -9.4%
all 36 +10.8% +0.2% 33% 3% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 3% -6.4%
10% -9.4% 3% -15.3%
15% -18.1% 3% -23.5%
20% -26.1% 3% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×6.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.35 per $1 lost it wins $6.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage464d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $72 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $33 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $23 −$2 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $29 +$3 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $30 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $29 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $29 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 19 $30 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $9 $0 +4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $9 $0 -4%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? May 22 $4 +$21 +482%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 20 $6 $0 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? May 12 $9 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 11 $7 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 11 $3 $0 -5%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Apr 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 23 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $28 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $29 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 71¢ $33 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $33 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $22 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $23 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $31 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $31 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $32 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $29 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.76 · official $30.26 (match) · 108 history records