Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2A 0x2ad3…38ac other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$98 (+6%) realized +$97 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%14W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days−$205
14 days−$205
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$116
sports 17% −$118
crypto 7% +$77
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -59.1% -63.0% 19% 19% -26.8%
≤30d 36 -59.1% -63.0% 19% 19% -26.8%
≤90d 43 -42.1% -47.6% 26% 26% -6.0%
all 48 -28.7% -35.5% 29% 29% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.5% 29% -5.3%
10% -41.7% 29% -14.3%
15% -47.3% 29% -22.6%
20% -52.5% 27% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$17 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 34
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage260d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $139 $140 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $144 −$3 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $92 +$52 +57%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $95 +$64 +67%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 +$64 +250%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brentford vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brighton win on 2025-10-25? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United vs. Brighton end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 13-19? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on October Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 13-19? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on October Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Swansea City AFC end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 13-19? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-03? Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-21? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 16 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-01? Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $51 +$60 +118%
Will Tottenham vs. Chelsea end in a draw? Apr 28 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $111 +$142 +128%
Liverpool FC leading at halftime? Apr 25 $19 +$19 +100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 23 $72 −$6 -8%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Apr 23 $28 −$3 -9%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $112 +$100 +89%
Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 13-19? Nov 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-26? Oct 28 $2 +$4 +212%
Will Aston Villa vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Oct 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $2 +$7 +354%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-05? Oct 05 $10 +$6 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $141 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $141 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $144 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $92 29h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 35h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $95 45h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $25 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 28¢ $26 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $101 7d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 22d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 48d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 66¢ $81 48d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 48d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 49¢ $49 50d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 50d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 50d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 50d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $252 53d
Liverpool FC leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.49 · official $140.51 (match) · 111 history records