Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2acf…f9bb weather 600 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,783 (+16%) realized +$3,742 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%215W / 524L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day104.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$462
7 days+$465
14 days+$2,734
30 days+$4,836
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$6,794
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 358 -58.0% -62.0% 13% 13% -2.6%
≤30d 726 -11.2% -19.7% 30% 29% +12.6%
≤90d 739 -12.8% -21.1% 29% 28% +10.4%
all 739 -12.8% -21.1% 29% 28% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 28% +10.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 26% -0.2%
15% -35.6% 26% -9.8%
20% -41.9% 25% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$22 · ×3.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$1,464
Realized+$3,742
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses215 / 524
Open positions28
Markets (closed)739 / 600
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day104.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 739 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 42¢ $78 $116 +$38 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Yes 29¢ 42¢ $77 $112 +$35 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 48¢ $77 $106 +$29 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Yes 29¢ 42¢ $73 $105 +$33 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 19¢ 27¢ $68 $95 +$27 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $71 $95 +$24 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $76 $86 +$10 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $73 $81 +$8 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $68 $78 +$10 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $75 $64 −$12 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Yes 17¢ 46¢ $24 $64 +$40 (+164%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 19¢ 27¢ $43 $63 +$20 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $65 $61 −$4 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $70 $48 −$22 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $71 $46 −$26 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $75 $46 −$29 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 35¢ $28 $36 +$8 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Yes 43¢ 18¢ $71 $29 −$42 (-59%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $52 $20 −$32 (-62%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Yes 23¢ 32¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 16? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $52 $12 −$40 (-77%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 472 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 2? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 14? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 2? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 26? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 17? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 14? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2? Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 2? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 16? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 15? Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 9? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 19 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 8? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 13? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 13? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 22? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 12? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 11? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 25? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 30? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 27? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 13? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 20? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 18? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 28? Jun 16 $9 −$10 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 12? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 3? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 28 Jun 16 $10 −$5 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 9m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 41m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 42m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 42m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 26¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $81 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $79 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $80 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $78 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 51¢ $75 5h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $46 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 29¢ $77 5h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 19¢ $62 5h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $45 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $17 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,464.01 · official $1,464.03 (match) · 3500 history records