Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:26:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ace…ea51 sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 728d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,281 (-31%) realized −$6,637 · open −$644
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate61%17W / 11L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$719per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2,336now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$65
14 days−$68
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$7,647
world 9% −$8
other 7% −$328
crypto 4% +$21
economics 1% +$1
tech 0% +$22
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 57% 43% -13.4%
≤30d 8 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 38% -13.6%
≤90d 11 -4.5% -13.6% 55% 45% -19.2%
all 28 -5.7% -14.7% 61% 32% -41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 32% -41.5%
10% -22.8% 32% -47.1%
15% -30.3% 32% -52.2%
20% -37.1% 25% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$1,001) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$263 vs −$1,069 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

728d coverage
Net worth$2,336
Realized−$6,637
Unrealized−$644
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses17 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions5
Markets (closed)28 / 33
History coverage728d
Avg bet$719
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 49¢ 48¢ $1,260 $1,247 −$13 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 41¢ 40¢ $1,000 $988 −$12 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 42¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 83¢ 93¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 39¢ $600 $1 −$599 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $101 +$87 +86%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$107 +105%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 21 $1,001 +$19 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 20 $20 +$22 +108%
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 11 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $707 +$338 +48%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $582 −$570 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5 Feb 24 $4,400 −$4,400 -100%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 Feb 23 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 Feb 23 $3,000 +$2,455 +82%
FC Bayern München vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5 Feb 21 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $1,269 +$1,431 +113%
Athletic Club vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 Feb 20 $2,680 −$2,680 -100%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Jan 28 $240 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Dec 16 $240 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 03 $110 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 12 $2,057 −$8 -0%
New pandemic before July? Oct 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson? Oct 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Trump-Vance Republican ticket on election day? Oct 12 $14 $0 +1%
Eric Adams indicted in 2024? Oct 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday? Sep 26 $13 $0 +3%
Solana above $165 on July 26? Aug 25 $12 +$6 +47%
Will ETH or SOL reach all-time high first? Jul 20 $13 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $1,018 15m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $264 38m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $1,015 44m
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $102 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $102 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $102 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $102 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $102 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $102 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $102 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $102 12h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 53¢ $101 21h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 98¢ $1,001 25h
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY No 65¢ $101 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 13d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 67¢ $707 43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 28¢ $582 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 53d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? BUY No 48¢ $20 110d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $400 116d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,000 116d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,000 116d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,000 116d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,000 116d
ACF Fiorentina vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,000 118d
RC Celta de Vigo vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,000 118d
RC Celta de Vigo vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,000 118d
RC Celta de Vigo vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,000 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,335.50 · official $2,331.87 (match) · 357 history records