Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:02:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2acc…cfed sports 900 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (131 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$759 (+12%) realized +$876 · open −$117
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate57%501W / 374L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day130.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$572now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$64
14 days+$47
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$23
sports 17% +$24
other 13% −$134
world 4% −$25
tech 1% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (131 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 293 -6.6% -15.5% 52% 41% -5.0%
≤30d 875 -7.8% -16.6% 57% 34% -10.2%
≤90d 875 -7.8% -16.6% 57% 34% -10.2%
all 875 -7.8% -16.6% 57% 34% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 34% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 28% -18.8%
15% -31.8% 24% -26.6%
20% -38.5% 18% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$572
Realized+$876
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses501 / 374
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions25
Markets (closed)875 / 900
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day130.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 875 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $110 $75 −$35 (-32%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $75 +$25 (+50%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $70 +$30 (+75%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $116 $58 −$58 (-50%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $55 +$25 (+83%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 63¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Curaçao 59¢ 57¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 80¢ 78¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Talia Gibson 85¢ 77¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Cabo Verde 64¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 47¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Beatriz Haddad Maia 81¢ 34¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Maya Joint 30¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 −$3 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$19 +46%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $12 +$12 +100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$4 +132%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$18 +47%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$8 +123%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -37%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$3 +250%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$3 -63%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $4 +$11 +276%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $4 +$6 +155%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $5 +$8 +164%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $2 +$1 +49%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $1 $0 -38%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$6 +67%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $2 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $1 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 81¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 85¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 31¢ $1 1h
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Kathinka von Deichmann 45¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 30¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 30¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 60¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 60¢ $1 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 59¢ $1 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 59¢ $1 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 59¢ $1 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 59¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 64¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $18 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 20¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $571.89 · official $571.89 (match) · 3500 history records