Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:54:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ac8…787d other 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,625 (+1%) realized +$1,626 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate28%33W / 83L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$1,150per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$16
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$76
other 41% +$2,043
sports 5% −$341
world 3% −$16
crypto 1% +$2
tech 1% +$3
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 41 +1.8% -7.9% 15% 2% -6.6%
all 116 -8.0% -16.8% 28% 6% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 6% -8.4%
10% -24.8% 6% -17.2%
15% -32.0% 6% -25.2%
20% -38.7% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,552) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$12 · ×6.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$1,168
Realized+$1,626
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses33 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)116 / 118
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,150
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $890 $890 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $279 $278 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,943 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $421 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $230 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,761 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $4,147 −$6 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,203 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,085 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,161 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $639 +$2 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $2,001 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $911 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $2,573 −$4 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $1,304 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,461 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 20 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $5,203 −$6 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 06 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $1,361 −$2 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con May 01 $268 +$1 +0%
Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con May 01 $340 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 01 $350 +$1 +0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 29 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $595 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $6,304 −$6 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,412 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,564 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,331 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $5,385 −$8 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2,828 −$3 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $1,282 +$2,278 +178%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 06 $59 $0 +0%
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Mar 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $7,586 −$8 -0%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-06? Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Mar 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-02-08? Mar 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-02-07? Mar 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-03-14? Mar 19 $91 −$91 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 19 $82 −$82 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Oilers Mar 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $279 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $314 29h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $315 30h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $420 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $421 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $230 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $230 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $890 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $924 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $925 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,008 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,010 9d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,477 9d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,479 9d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,479 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,481 10d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,202 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,203 14d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,488 15d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,491 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,281 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,282 17d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,511 18d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,514 18d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,036 18d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,038 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,160 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,161 19d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $841 21d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $842 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,168.02 · official $1,168.02 (match) · 361 history records