Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:03:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ac7…907c other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$53
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$48
other 21% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -18.2% -26.0% 33% 22% -26.4%
≤30d 20 -9.6% -18.2% 35% 25% -25.3%
≤90d 20 -9.6% -18.2% 35% 25% -25.3%
all 20 -9.6% -18.2% 35% 25% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 25% -25.3%
10% -26.0% 20% -32.5%
15% -33.2% 15% -39.0%
20% -39.7% 15% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $214 −$49 -23%
Will CF Universidad de Chile vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $2 $0 -10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $2 $0 -10%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 -5%
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 $0 -11%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$2 -28%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 $0 -8%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 $0 +3%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -23%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +5%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +67%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 $0 -10%
Ilkley (Doubles): Christie/Silva vs Cross/McDonald Jun 10 $2 +$3 +147%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes $31 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes $61 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $135 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $154 1h
Will CF Universidad de Chile vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $2 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 27h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 27h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 28h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 28h
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 31h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1 31h
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 31h
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 31h
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 31h
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 34h
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 34h
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 34h
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 34h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.94 · official $1.94 (match) · 66 history records