Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ac6…1b9d other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$312 (-53%) realized −$94 · open −$218
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$55
14 days−$65
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$312
sports 6% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-77.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -52.4% -57.0% 0% 0% -57.0%
≤30d 3 -84.1% -85.7% 0% 0% -65.8%
≤90d 8 -74.6% -77.0% 12% 12% -60.2%
all 8 -74.6% -77.0% 12% 12% -60.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.0% 12% -60.2%
10% -79.2% 12% -64.0%
15% -81.2% 12% -67.5%
20% -83.0% 12% -70.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$16 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized−$94
Unrealized−$218
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage59d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $400 $182 −$218 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $104 −$55 -52%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $18 +$10 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $10 11d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $17 25d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 25d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) BUY FC Bayern München 18¢ $3 49d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) BUY FC Bayern München 10¢ $3 49d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer BUY No 0¢ $6 49d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 56d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $29 56d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $18 56d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 56d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 56d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 59d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.82 · official $181.82 (match) · 71 history records