Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2ac5…fd0b other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fading edge
Total PnL +$43 (+9%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days+$27
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$59
world 13% −$43
sports 8% +$12
crypto 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +32.6% +19.9% 56% 56% -3.9%
≤30d 32 +37.1% +24.0% 56% 56% -4.3%
≤90d 32 +37.1% +24.0% 56% 56% -4.3%
all 32 +37.1% +24.0% 56% 56% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.0% 56% -4.3%
10% +12.1% 44% -13.4%
15% +1.3% 44% -21.8%
20% -8.6% 34% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +128% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 40
History coverage9d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $29 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 +$2 +70%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 −$15 -50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $76 +$15 +20%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U Jun 24 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $68 +$8 +12%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $1 +$6 +550%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +46%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $52 +$8 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $2 +$8 +443%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Aus Jun 23 $10 +$10 +98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026- Jun 22 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 +$3 +41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 +$12 +50%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$1 +13%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi Jun 20 $1 +$2 +379%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $29 47m
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 8h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $1 15h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $1 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 10¢ $2 16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY 66¢ $20 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 45¢ $15 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 89¢ $30 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 31h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $76 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 24¢ $7 43h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U SELL 97¢ $10 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 89¢ $68 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 16¢ $2 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U BUY 46¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $52 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 44¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records