Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:24:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ac3…c523 crypto 606 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,133 (-5%) realized −$2,063 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate60%359W / 238L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$246
14 days−$474
30 days−$474
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$2,072
sports 10% −$448
other 7% +$237
world 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -1.8% -11.1% 45% 40% +1.4%
≤30d 82 -14.1% -22.3% 40% 37% -20.9%
≤90d 211 -39.9% -45.6% 26% 22% -40.7%
all 597 -9.0% -17.7% 60% 44% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 44% -14.7%
10% -25.6% 25% -22.8%
15% -32.8% 16% -30.3%
20% -39.4% 11% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$34 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$545
Realized−$2,063
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses359 / 238
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions9
Markets (closed)597 / 606
History coverage146d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 597 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $250 $195 −$55 (-22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Yes 33¢ 40¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $205 +$36 +18%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $82 +$10 +12%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $15 +$1 +7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $174 +$4 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $152 +$103 +68%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Pedro Porro: 1+ goals Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 26 $71 −$70 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$39 +38%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $3 +$15 +474%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $136 +$74 +55%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 +$5 +50%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 +$82 +135%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +18%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 +$7 +70%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $142 +$79 +56%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$20 +81%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$16 +158%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $20 +$19 +92%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$6 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $145 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 27¢ $92 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $10 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $10 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $77 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 12h
Pedro Porro: 1+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $71 12h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 84¢ $140 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $101 36h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 66¢ $10 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 25¢ $17 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $545.14 · official $545.14 (match) · 2408 history records