Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:49:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ac2…5ef0 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+3%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$19
other 14% −$74
crypto 4% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -24.6% -31.8% 29% 29% -24.9%
≤30d 7 -24.6% -31.8% 29% 29% -24.9%
≤90d 7 -24.6% -31.8% 29% 29% -24.9%
all 7 -24.6% -31.8% 29% 29% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.8% 29% -24.9%
10% -38.3% 29% -32.1%
15% -44.3% 29% -38.6%
20% -49.8% 29% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$39 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 −$74 -74%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $114 +$81 +71%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $121 −$7 -6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $34 −$30 -89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$32 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $26 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 4h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY 27¢ $219 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 99¢ $195 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 57¢ $114 6d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 38¢ $114 6d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $121 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 4¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 36¢ $34 6d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $57 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $57 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records