Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2abd…2865 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$27 (-4%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$3
other 27% −$1
politics 7% −$5
culture 5% −$17
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.2% -10.6% 27% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 17 +4.8% -5.2% 29% 6% -10.3%
≤90d 17 +4.8% -5.2% 29% 6% -10.3%
all 36 -5.5% -14.5% 31% 3% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 3% -12.9%
10% -22.7% 3% -21.2%
15% -30.2% 3% -28.8%
20% -37.0% 3% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage250d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 78¢ 78¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $22 −$1 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $27 −$2 -8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $38 −$1 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $93 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $55 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $8 $0 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jan 31 $3 $0 +2%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $2 $0 +7%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Nov 19 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 21 $11 $0 -2%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy not shake hands on October 17? Oct 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $4 $0 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 17 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $33 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $41 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $21 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $3 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $34 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $38 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $27 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $9 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $31 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $40 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $31 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $8 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $39 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $43 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $38 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.75 · official $7.75 (match) · 139 history records