Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2abd…9c2d politics 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,210 (-2%) realized −$2,209 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate30%38W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$871per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$11
14 days−$18
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$62
other 34% −$5
sports 11% −$2,139
culture 4% −$5
world 2% +$3
crypto 1% −$17
economics 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 47 -2.2% -11.5% 11% 2% -10.8%
all 126 -3.3% -12.5% 30% 10% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 10% -11.4%
10% -20.9% 10% -19.9%
15% -28.5% 9% -27.7%
20% -35.6% 5% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,117) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$29 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$1,424
Realized−$2,209
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses38 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage143d
Avg bet$871
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $765 $764 −$0 (-0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $660 $660 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $753 +$3 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,093 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,094 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,223 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,330 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,007 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $5,577 −$5 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,140 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,263 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,563 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $1,082 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,087 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $2,744 −$4 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,964 −$4 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,628 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $2,879 −$4 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,313 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,210 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,601 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 02 $891 +$2 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $3,055 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,438 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $2,045 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $178 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 09 $150 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $162 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 05 $34 −$8 -24%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 05 $936 −$936 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $3,459 −$3 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $843 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $57 −$20 -34%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 22 $634 −$1 -0%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans Mar 22 $91 +$53 +58%
Hurricanes vs. Rangers Mar 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-02-08? Mar 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5 Mar 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $765 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $660 20h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $675 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $677 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $998 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $999 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,048 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,049 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,071 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,072 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $915 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $916 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $909 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $911 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,009 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,011 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $869 10d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $870 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $963 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $963 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $744 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $745 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,138 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,140 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $705 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $706 14d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,033 14d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,034 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,009 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,010 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,424.18 · official $1,424.18 (match) · 455 history records