Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2abc…fe17 world 82 markets active 7h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate32%25W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$11
other 21% +$10
politics 18% −$2
sports 9% −$20
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.4% -9.9% 18% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 4% -8.7%
≤90d 66 -0.4% -9.9% 27% 2% -9.2%
all 79 -0.7% -10.1% 32% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 6% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses25 / 54
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage528d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 10¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+365%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $53 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $15 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $52 −$2 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $64 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $55 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $110 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $5 −$2 -29%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $8 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $57 −$2 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $90 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $44 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $43 +$3 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $45 +$11 +25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $82 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $42 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 19 $42 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $1 $0 -5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $12 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 09 $84 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 09 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $80 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $57 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $2 $0 +7%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $16 $0 -1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $53 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $4 $0 -10%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $17 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $90 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $51 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 31h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $52 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $54 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $53 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $55 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $29 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $10 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $50 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $49 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $56 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $27 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.00 (match) · 315 history records