Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2A
0x2ab8…bb2b
other · 116 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$27 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$32 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses64 / 51
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage82d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%
Chart Positions 1 History 115 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$65
14 days−$116
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 37¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Under 69¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Under 68¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $15 −$13 -91%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $14 +$6 +44%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $6 −$2 -36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $12 +$7 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$2 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $15 +$1 +5%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $3 $0 +9%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $11 $0 +4%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $16 +$1 +10%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $7 +$2 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$4 +64%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 −$3 -53%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Belarus vs. Syria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $15 +$4 +30%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $29 +$6 +23%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $5 +$2 +44%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $11 +$1 +5%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $38 +$4 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $38 −$3 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $8 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $40 +$7 +18%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $19 $0 +2%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -99%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $7 +$2 +33%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $6 +$1 +23%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $31 −$3 -11%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $7 +$1 +16%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $13 +$7 +56%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $6 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -8%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $6 $0 -9%
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $7 +$3 +46%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $15 +$5 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% +$63
sports 46% −$115
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1 36m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 76¢ $3 36m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 61¢ $12 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 7¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 7¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 78¢ $16 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 24¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 68¢ $7 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $4 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $15 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $6 2h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $15 16h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 16h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $14 17h
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 40¢ $4 21h
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 21h
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 21h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $20 22h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $6 23h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $6 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 27h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 27h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $30 27h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 35h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 38h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 60¢ $6 47h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -19.4% -27.1% 50% 35% -20.2%
≤30d 99 -6.7% -15.6% 57% 41% -11.9%
≤90d 115 -6.3% -15.2% 56% 40% -11.4%
all 115 -6.3% -15.2% 56% 40% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 40% -11.4%
10% -23.3% 32% -19.9%
15% -30.7% 20% -27.6%
20% -37.5% 11% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 367 history records