Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:28:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2A 0x2ab7…77b4 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$89 (+13%) realized +$109 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$103
14 days+$103
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +58.3% +43.3% 50% 50% +28.5%
≤30d 4 +42.0% +28.5% 50% 50% +25.6%
≤90d 4 +42.0% +28.5% 50% 50% +25.6%
all 4 +42.0% +28.5% 50% 50% +25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.5% 50% +25.6%
10% +16.2% 50% +13.5%
15% +5.0% 50% +2.6%
20% -5.3% 50% -7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$7 · ×9.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.38 per $1 lost it wins $9.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$109
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage17d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group A largadosypelados 57¢ 52¢ $208 $188 −$20 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Jun 24 $93 +$117 +125%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Jun 23 $153 −$13 -9%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Jonas Forejtek Jun 09 $31 +$17 +55%
Tiffon vs. Blanch: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $31 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.97 · official $187.97 (match) · 17 history records