Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:56:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ab5…bc74 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$24 (-20%) realized −$26 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$13
sports 44% −$17
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +9.3% -1.1% 33% 33% -16.4%
≤30d 13 -17.0% -24.9% 23% 23% -35.4%
≤90d 13 -17.0% -24.9% 23% 23% -35.4%
all 13 -17.0% -24.9% 23% 23% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 23% -35.4%
10% -32.1% 23% -41.6%
15% -38.7% 23% -47.2%
20% -44.7% 23% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage16d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +272%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$12 +113%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime? May 30 $5 $0 -5%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.93 · official $6.93 (match) · 20 history records