Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ab4…b569 sports 418 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$917 (-2%) realized −$917 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate61%254W / 164L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$244est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$395
7 days+$341
14 days+$230
30 days−$968
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$646
crypto 21% −$694
other 5% +$453
world 0% −$8
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +47.3% +33.3% 62% 50% +15.0%
≤30d 72 +6.4% -3.8% 58% 47% -15.6%
≤90d 278 -10.7% -19.2% 54% 39% -10.2%
all 418 -10.0% -18.5% 61% 34% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 34% -11.7%
10% -26.3% 25% -20.1%
15% -33.4% 19% -27.9%
20% -40.0% 14% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$48 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$917
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses254 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$244
Open positions0
Markets (closed)418 / 418
History coverage156d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 418 Trades
no open positions (69 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $208 +$67 +32%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $183 +$236 +129%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $125 −$36 -29%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $204 −$80 -39%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $271 +$26 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $90 +$182 +203%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $37 +$56 +152%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $140 −$109 -78%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $115 −$114 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +55%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $14 +$86 +614%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +33%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $80 +$20 +25%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $132 −$129 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $77 +$54 +70%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $280 −$275 -98%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $337 +$8 +2%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $3 +$7 +285%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $5 +$9 +179%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 30 $3 +$2 +54%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $68 −$68 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $209 −$208 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $80 +$12 +15%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $236 +$33 +14%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $11 +$4 +32%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $190 +$3 +1%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 29 $22 +$9 +42%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 29 $200 +$10 +5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $140 +$60 +43%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 29 $140 +$4 +3%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas May 29 $88 +$10 +11%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 29 $20 +$15 +76%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $37 +$30 +79%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 28 $45 +$11 +25%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 28 $20 +$14 +70%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pitt May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 27 $25 $0 +0%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $1,606 −$1,000 -62%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $397 −$395 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $275 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $208 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $183 6h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 41¢ $89 7h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $125 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 31¢ $124 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $204 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $296 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $271 38h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $272 39h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 33¢ $90 44h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $37 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Ecuador $31 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 40¢ $140 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 83¢ $115 9d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 50¢ $100 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 10d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 10d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 10d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 10d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 10d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 10d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 10d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 10d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 10d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 10d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 10d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 10d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 80¢ $30 10d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 80¢ $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 962 history records