Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:53:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2ab3…e235 weather 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate60%32W / 21L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 49% +$9
tech 36% −$2
other 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 32 +0.0% -9.5% 47% 0% -9.5%
all 53 +0.3% -9.3% 60% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.6 per $1 lost it wins $3.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses32 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage120d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 27 $109 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 22 $120 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $112 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $103 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 05 $162 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $171 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 31 $390 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 26 $148 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 24 $101 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 03 $72 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $39 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29? Apr 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 22? Apr 23 $95 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 20? Apr 21 $68 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 16 Apr 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 8? Apr 12 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 11? Apr 12 $82 $0 +0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 10 $152 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 5? Apr 08 $118 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 4? Apr 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 3? Apr 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 3 Apr 01 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 29? Mar 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 28? Mar 29 $79 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 27 $99 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on March 25? Mar 26 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on March 24? Mar 25 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 23? Mar 24 $102 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 22 $347 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 20? Mar 20 $69 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 19 $81 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Mar 16 $41 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ma Mar 16 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 13? Mar 14 $162 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 11? Mar 11 $162 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 10? Mar 10 $161 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on March 8? Mar 09 $161 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 6? Mar 08 $161 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 6? Mar 07 $161 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March Mar 06 $161 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Ma Mar 05 $160 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 99¢ $110 1h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 99¢ $109 3d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $120 5d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 7d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 9d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $102 9d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 10d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $102 14d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 14d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 17d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 18d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 19d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 20d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 21d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $162 22d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $162 23d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $72 25d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $102 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $102 28d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $98 29d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 30d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $63 32d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $63 33d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $101 34d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $101 34d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $81 35d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $81 37d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $98 40d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $98 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records