Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:59:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ab2…9401 crypto 486 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,004 (-11%) realized −$4,004 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%259W / 372L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day52.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$636
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 387 -42.3% -47.8% 25% 25% -78.7%
≤30d 394 -42.4% -47.9% 26% 26% -78.5%
≤90d 631 -29.8% -36.5% 41% 34% -36.6%
all 631 -29.8% -36.5% 41% 34% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.5% 34% -36.6%
10% ← realistic here -42.5% 26% -42.7%
15% -48.1% 21% -48.2%
20% -53.2% 17% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$56 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$4,004
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses259 / 372
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)631 / 486
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$73
Trades / day52.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 631 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 344 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $252 −$252 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $233 −$233 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $306 −$306 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $232 −$232 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $233 −$233 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $198 −$198 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $305 −$305 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $252 −$252 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $131 −$131 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $252 −$252 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 39m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $52 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $52 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $52 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.88 · official $9.88 (match) · 3500 history records