Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:34:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2A 0x2ab0…95fb world 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$120 (+1%) realized +$82 · open +$38
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate78%73W / 21L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,938now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$7
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$123
other 21% +$31
tech 12% +$7
politics 5% +$18
finance 1% +$2
culture 1% −$48
crypto 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 11 +1.9% -7.8% 82% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 68 -2.4% -11.7% 79% 10% -8.8%
all 94 -1.7% -11.0% 78% 10% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 10% -8.8%
10% -19.5% 6% -17.6%
15% -27.3% 4% -25.5%
20% -34.4% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$1,938
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses73 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)94 / 101
History coverage115d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,780 $1,816 +$37 (+2%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 80¢ 82¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 93¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $50 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 18 $17 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $195 +$6 +3%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 02 $839 +$9 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $1,541 +$29 +2%
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? May 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $52 on the final trading day of June 2 May 25 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 24 $448 +$10 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? May 22 $200 +$9 +5%
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? May 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026? May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French p May 11 $6 +$1 +22%
Will "Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle (Yuki Kajiura, Go May 09 $1 +$2 +178%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? May 08 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 08 $1 −$1 -97%
French election called by June 30, 2026? May 06 $43 +$1 +3%
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish P May 04 $107 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? May 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 03 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2? May 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $342 +$4 +1%
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 May 01 $1,231 −$4 -0%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 01 $591 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +4%
Will Gabriel Attal announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presid Apr 28 $10 +$4 +41%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Apr 28 $287 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Apr 26 $47 +$1 +1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French president Apr 25 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr Apr 25 $99 $0 +0%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French president Apr 24 $4 $0 +8%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 23? Apr 24 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 23 $3 $0 +5%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 23 $5 +$3 +64%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $536 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 21 $1 $0 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 20? Apr 20 $17 +$1 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 19 $869 +$4 +0%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $1,267 +$23 +2%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 11 $10 +$3 +27%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 11 $1,166 +$12 +1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 09 $10 −$7 -74%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten To Apr 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $20 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $50 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL Yes 99¢ $17 57m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $30 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $6 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $204 8d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $186 9d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $14 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1,576 14d
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $514 23d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $52 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL Yes 97¢ $8 23d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 23d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 23d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 23d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 23d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 23d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 23d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 23d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 23d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 23d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 23d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 23d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 23d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $76 23d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 24d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 24d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 24d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 24d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 24d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,937.90 · official $1,937.90 (match) · 411 history records