Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2A 0x2aaf…b21a sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$26,892 (+25%) realized +$30,296 · open −$3,404
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$2,638per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$1,090est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$10,756now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$13,128
sports 44% −$397
crypto 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +27.2% +15.1% 39% 39% +13.0%
≤30d 40 +18.1% +6.9% 35% 35% +7.2%
≤90d 40 +18.1% +6.9% 35% 35% +7.2%
all 40 +18.1% +6.9% 35% 35% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.9% 35% +7.2%
10% -3.4% 35% -3.1%
15% ← realistic here -12.7% 35% -12.5%
20% -21.3% 35% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$3,771) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,932 vs −$2,036 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$10,756
Realized+$30,296
Unrealized−$3,404
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$1,090
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage10d
Avg bet$2,638
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14,160 $10,756 −$3,404 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $3,771 +$6,507 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $561 +$1,096 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $484 −$459 -95%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $7,508 −$7,350 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $7,209 +$7,816 +108%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 28 $2,609 −$2,551 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $5,123 −$5,000 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $7,374 +$20,684 +280%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $4,937 −$4,858 -98%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 28 $1,230 +$6,262 +509%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 27 $4,588 −$4,500 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $6,168 −$3,835 -62%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3,007 +$7,264 +242%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $1,472 +$1,448 +98%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $533 −$518 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2,177 −$2,158 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $2,488 −$2,444 -98%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 27 $4,963 +$7,846 +158%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 27 $704 −$29 -4%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $766 −$746 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $1,002 +$1,726 +172%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $2,243 −$2,186 -98%
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Jun 27 $5,993 −$5,991 -100%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $150 −$141 -94%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $858 +$2,504 +292%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $735 +$708 +96%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 27 $2,904 −$900 -31%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $2,713 −$2,609 -96%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $778 +$2,522 +324%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $205 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $250 −$240 -96%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $1,935 −$1,895 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $712 −$694 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $655 −$635 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $496 +$2,348 +473%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $298 +$317 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $96 −$91 -95%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,948 −$2,894 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $159 36m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 37m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $55 40m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 40m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 42m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $210 43m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 43m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 46m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $65 47m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 48m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 49m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 50m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 50m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 51m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 51m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 52m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $63 53m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 54m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $149 56m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $110 56m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 56m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 57m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 59m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $83 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,756.26 · official $10,756.26 (match) · 301 history records