trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 50% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -0.5% | -9.9% | 40% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -0.5% | -9.9% | 40% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 28 | +2.5% | -7.3% | 36% | 7% | -8.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.3% | 7% | -8.4% |
| 10% | -16.1% | 4% | -17.1% |
| 15% | -24.2% | 4% | -25.2% |
| 20% | -31.7% | 4% | -32.5% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 24 | $50 | $0 | -1% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 23 | $35 | +$1 | +2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 03 | $68 | $0 | -1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 02 | $6 | $0 | -5% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 01 | $67 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 01 | $32 | $0 | -1% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 30 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $70 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 28 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 28 | $67 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele | Mar 25 | $6 | +$1 | +14% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Jan 31 | $9 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? | Jan 31 | $15 | +$9 | +61% |
| Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? | Nov 20 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Nov 20 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? | Nov 20 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? | Nov 19 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? | Nov 19 | $53 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? | Nov 18 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? | Nov 05 | $22 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 28 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? | Oct 26 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? | Oct 26 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? | Oct 26 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Oct 26 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Oct 25 | $23 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? | Oct 23 | $23 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 10? | Oct 13 | $23 | $0 | +1% |