Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:53:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2A 0x2aaf…da3e crypto 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$105 (-4%) realized −$100 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate84%79W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$7
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$87
other 16% −$8
world 3% −$12
sports 2% −$10
politics 2% +$9
economics 1% −$1
finance 1% +$4
tech 1% +$1
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +25.0% +13.1% 100% 100% +13.1%
≤30d 5 -7.8% -16.6% 80% 40% -14.1%
≤90d 24 +8.1% -2.2% 92% 46% -7.3%
all 94 -5.5% -14.5% 84% 16% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 16% -13.2%
10% -22.7% 10% -21.5%
15% -30.1% 5% -29.1%
20% -37.0% 1% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses79 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)94 / 101
History coverage256d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 60¢ 52¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-12%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 57¢ 29¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-49%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $13 +$3 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 02 $16 +$4 +25%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $13 −$12 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 18 $11 $0 +3%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 18 $17 +$1 +8%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 12 $11 +$4 +39%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 05 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 05 $14 +$2 +16%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 24 $32 +$2 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 18 $14 +$3 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 18 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Mezo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 07 $8 $0 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $9 +$1 +10%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $1 $0 +6%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $26 +$9 +33%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $38 +$15 +40%
Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 22 $18 +$3 +14%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $4 +$2 +41%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 18 $4 +$2 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? Mar 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February? Mar 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Mar 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Mar 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Mar 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 20 Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? Feb 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February? Feb 19 $5 $0 +1%
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? Feb 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 19 $5 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026 Feb 19 $23 $0 +1%
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Feb 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9? Feb 11 $2 $0 +16%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 11 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026 Feb 05 $2 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? Feb 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $1 $0 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 02 $3 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $8 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $7 6d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 12d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $4 19d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $14 19d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 19d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 98¢ $20 19d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 75¢ $5 27d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $10 27d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 30¢ $6 27d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 78¢ $12 34d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $18 34d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $18 34d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 34d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 92¢ $17 40d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $9 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 86¢ $14 46d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $11 46d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $12 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.05 · official $29.22 (match) · 269 history records