Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2aae…a80c other 903 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$865 (-2%) realized −$795 · open −$70
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate90%760W / 88L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$673now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$39
14 days+$79
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% −$550
other 29% +$56
economics 21% +$45
finance 7% +$82
sports 7% +$17
tech 4% +$107
politics 0% +$84
world 0% −$9
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +9.3% -1.1% 97% 17% -5.1%
≤30d 359 +0.4% -9.1% 92% 17% -7.8%
≤90d 563 -3.5% -12.7% 88% 13% -10.2%
all 848 -0.2% -9.7% 90% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 11% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 6% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$673
Realized−$795
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses760 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions58
Markets (closed)848 / 903
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 848 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 66¢ 96¢ $198 $287 +$89 (+45%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? No 92¢ 51¢ $62 $35 −$27 (-44%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? No 75¢ 80¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+6%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? No 95¢ 64¢ $27 $18 −$9 (-32%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? No 96¢ 88¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? No 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
World Cup: Winless Team? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Wells Fargo fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $393 +$7 +2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $72 +$3 +4%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Jun 18 $349 +$14 +4%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $21 +$1 +2%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 $0 +11%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 14 $117 +$5 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +20%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +42%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $68 +$2 +2%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 11 $248 +$17 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $63 +$7 +11%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? Jun 09 $30 $0 -1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? Jun 09 $26 $0 -1%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 $0 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Gibraltar 1 - 3 Cayman Islands? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Germany? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Armenia 0 - 3 Kazakhstan? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +14%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $5 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Gibraltar 0 - 3 Cayman Islands? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under $5 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 SELL Under 92¢ $5 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $151 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $12 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $134 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $139 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $89 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $45 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 76¢ $109 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $37 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $89 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $18 1h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? SELL No 85¢ $123 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $37 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 95¢ $38 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $5 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $35 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $22 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $21 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL No 91¢ $5 1h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $111 3d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? SELL No 88¢ $118 3d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $8 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? SELL No 89¢ $20 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL No 26¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 56¢ $39 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $29 7d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $69 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 50¢ $35 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $673.44 · official $673.44 (match) · 3500 history records