Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2A 0x2aac…a718 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$69,957 (+93%) realized +$69,947 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$1,880per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$897
14 days+$563
30 days+$456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% +$71,045
politics 2% −$1,079
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +46.5% +32.5% 75% 75% -58.0%
≤30d 14 +40.4% +27.0% 64% 64% +6.3%
≤90d 39 +62.7% +47.2% 46% 38% +56.0%
all 39 +62.7% +47.2% 46% 38% +56.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +47.2% 38% +56.0%
10% ← realistic here +33.1% 33% +41.1%
15% +20.3% 31% +27.5%
20% +8.5% 21% +15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +93% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$2,653) neutral
Persistence
early +111% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,807 vs −$789 · ×6.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.22 per $1 lost it wins $5.22
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized+$69,947
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage90d
Avg bet$1,880
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $240 $250 +$10 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $8 +$12 +144%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $215 +$85 +40%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $40 +$60 +150%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $34 +$13 +39%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $40 +$60 +150%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 19 $905 −$842 -93%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 19 $362 −$302 -84%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $68 +$18 +26%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $145 −$92 -64%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $370 +$1,430 +386%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$3 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $282 +$118 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -94%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 31 $107 −$100 -94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $767 −$665 -87%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1,685 +$165 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $364 −$267 -74%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $898 −$20 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 24 $884 +$36 +4%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Apr 21 $1,362 −$1,079 -79%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $8,914 −$2,324 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $6,828 −$5,734 -84%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $4,433 −$655 -15%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 20 $1,544 −$212 -14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $634 +$246 +39%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 16 $5,107 −$556 -11%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $1,793 −$1,793 -100%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 15 $178 −$21 -12%
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, Apr 15 $192 +$42 +22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 15 $1,940 −$500 -26%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $3,467 +$8,575 +247%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $14,099 +$1,061 +8%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $2,653 +$68,687 +2590%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $3,630 +$2,352 +65%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $4,060 +$3,570 +88%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 06 $3,687 −$846 -23%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 05 $1,000 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 05 $1,098 −$258 -24%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $1,137 −$303 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $43 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $18 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $24 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $39 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $44 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $71 1h
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 3d
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 72¢ $33 3d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 40¢ $33 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 4d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $15 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $44 4d
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? SELL Yes 8¢ $60 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5d
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 5d
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 6d
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 6d
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $42 6d
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 86¢ $86 6d
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6d
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6d
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 6d
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.00 · official $250.00 (match) · 786 history records