Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2A
0x2aac…1b36
economics · 83 markets active 90d ago
0.0score
+$287,584 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$287,584 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$287,584
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses59 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage385d
Avg bet$46,834
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 0 History 83 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1,449 $0 −$1,449 (-100%)
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? No 48¢ 0¢ $64,884 $0 −$64,884 (-100%)
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $471 $0 −$471 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 15 $51,223 +$3,748 +7%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 15 $50,916 +$287 +1%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 31 $2,165 −$2,148 -99%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 24 $354,027 +$10,554 +3%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 16 $2,050 −$1,290 -63%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $10,693 +$430 +4%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 13 $8,119 +$637 +8%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jan 12 $10,251 −$37 -0%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 12 $3,654 −$89 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jan 01 $47,189 +$1,505 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Jan 01 $506 +$98 +19%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $347,950 +$9,403 +3%
US recession in 2025? Jan 01 $93,409 +$62,042 +66%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025? Jan 01 $1,180 +$32 +3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025? Jan 01 $17,874 +$254 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 30 $34,361 +$394 +1%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 16 $78,990 −$66,690 -84%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Dec 11 $25,761 −$25,761 -100%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 11 $8,071 +$3,929 +49%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $177,820 +$77,983 +44%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 m Dec 07 $2,865 +$2,304 +80%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 07 $5,390 +$7 +0%
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 9-12%? Nov 28 $3,942 +$646 +16%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Nov 24 $1,449 −$1,449 -100%
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 12-15%? Nov 06 $12,116 −$12,080 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $191,225 +$7,375 +4%
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 04 $3,203 −$1,144 -36%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 04 $1,100 −$300 -27%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $404,528 +$26,681 +7%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 20 $82,986 −$8,152 -10%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $79,833 +$2,052 +3%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $148,541 +$4,848 +3%
Will the Government shutdown end October 1-2? Oct 03 $2,784 +$353 +13%
US government shutdown in 2025? Oct 01 $45,037 +$17,695 +39%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 01 $88,916 +$30,686 +34%
U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1? Oct 01 $6,649 +$820 +12%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? Sep 29 $5,761 +$6,547 +114%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $135,966 +$14,785 +11%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $173,787 +$35,591 +20%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31? Sep 02 $4,647 +$887 +19%
Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested by August 31? Sep 02 $10,494 +$2,054 +20%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Aug 28 $10,329 −$5,186 -50%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Aug 20 $663 −$143 -22%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez qualify for Bolivia’s presidential runoff? Aug 19 $54,158 +$6,175 +11%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 17 $20,116 +$343 +2%
Will Donald Trump disparage Vladimir Putin on Friday? Aug 17 $10,140 +$1,966 +19%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Aug 05 $16,735 −$5,198 -31%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%? Jul 30 $25,142 +$13,777 +55%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 30 $262,511 +$32,839 +12%
Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025? Jul 30 $68,908 +$33,052 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 57% +$255,031
politics 20% +$52,445
other 10% −$3,174
world 7% −$25,067
culture 6% +$6,900
finance 1% +$1,014
sports 0% +$435
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 100¢ $51,165 89d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $3,806 100d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 93¢ $34,860 116d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 74¢ $7 116d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $13,495 118d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 73¢ $17,548 118d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $9 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $9 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $6 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $8 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $5 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $9 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $9 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $7 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $13 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $7 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $7 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $9 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $10 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $400 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $8 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $8 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $8 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $9 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $9 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $9 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $7 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $5 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $10 119d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $10 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +7.3% -2.9% 100% 0% -2.9%
all 83 +20.1% +8.6% 71% 41% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.6% 41% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -1.8% 18% -13.8%
15% -11.3% 16% -22.1%
20% -20.0% 10% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records