Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2A 0x2aa7…003f sports 571 markets active 2h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$973 (-1%) realized −$999 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%309W / 257L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$1,279est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days−$7,368
14 days−$5,768
30 days−$4,273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$158
other 1% −$986
crypto 0% −$197
finance 0% −$260
world 0% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -55.5% -59.8% 24% 24% -61.6%
≤30d 156 -12.0% -20.4% 53% 40% -13.6%
≤90d 476 -15.0% -23.1% 48% 42% -12.8%
all 566 -0.1% -9.6% 55% 50% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 50% -10.2%
10% -18.3% 47% -18.8%
15% -26.2% 44% -26.6%
20% -33.4% 37% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$148 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$344
Realized−$999
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses309 / 257
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1,279
Open positions3
Markets (closed)566 / 571
History coverage201d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 566 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $148 $149 +$1 (+1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 51¢ 62¢ $102 $125 +$23 (+23%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $68 $70 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $191 −$189 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $129 −$128 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $191 +$209 +109%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$160 +105%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $310 +$33 +11%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $269 +$231 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $679 +$304 +45%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 14 $140 −$140 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $107 −$107 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $95 −$95 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 14 $112 −$112 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $128 −$128 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $107 −$107 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $149 −$149 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 14 $159 −$159 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 14 $232 −$232 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $260 −$260 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 14 $275 −$275 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 14 $219 −$219 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $191 −$191 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 14 $385 −$385 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $289 −$289 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 14 $225 −$225 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $160 −$111 -69%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $225 −$225 -100%
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $780 −$780 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $830 −$830 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,820 −$1,820 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $205 −$185 -90%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $180 +$120 +66%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $104 +$196 +188%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $274 +$226 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $350 −$191 -55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $160 +$90 +56%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $708 +$227 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $289 +$99 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $135 +$115 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$50 +167%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $191 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $129 9h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $400 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to BUY 38¢ $102 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $191 14h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 20h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 21h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $37 22h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 23h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $58 23h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 23h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 23h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $111 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 48¢ $152 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 35¢ $343 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 31¢ $310 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $499 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $983 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 69¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 69¢ $506 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 69¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 69¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 69¢ $45 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 69¢ $70 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 69¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 69¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 69¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 69¢ $22 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 69¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $134 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.68 · official $343.68 (match) · 2336 history records