Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2aa6…1e5a sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,706 (-61%) realized −$10,426 · open −$280
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -99% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -99% what you keep after slip
Net edge-99%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,342per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$260est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$707now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$12,604
other 21% −$3,451
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-99.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -99.1% -99.2% 0% 0% -97.5%
≤30d 10 -99.1% -99.2% 0% 0% -97.5%
≤90d 10 -99.1% -99.2% 0% 0% -97.5%
all 10 -99.1% -99.2% 0% 0% -97.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -99.2% 0% -97.5%
10% ← realistic here -99.3% 0% -97.8%
15% -99.3% 0% -98.0%
20% -99.4% 0% -98.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -97% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -99% · $-wt -97% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1,577 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$707
Realized−$10,426
Unrealized−$280
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 10
Est. fees paid−$260
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,342
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 81¢ $487 $515 +$28 (+6%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 36¢ 12¢ $400 $128 −$272 (-68%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $1,033 −$1,008 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2,966 −$2,922 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $919 −$900 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1,028 −$1,000 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $221 −$215 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,987 −$4,543 -91%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3,037 −$2,987 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,026 −$1,000 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,029 −$1,000 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $490 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $408 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $7 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2,966 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $919 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $1,025 4h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,028 7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $221 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 3¢ $444 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $4,987 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $3,037 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,026 32h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1,029 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $706.70 · official $706.76 (match) · 16 history records