Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2aa5…ff32 sports 462 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$47,516 (-32%) realized −$47,516 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%215W / 247L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Fees−$2,047est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$11,236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -21.2% -28.7% 54% 31% -17.8%
≤30d 22 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 36% -16.3%
≤90d 462 +11.7% +1.1% 47% 36% -16.9%
all 462 +11.7% +1.1% 47% 36% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 36% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 31% -24.9%
15% -17.4% 29% -32.1%
20% -25.5% 27% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +37% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$191 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47,516
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses215 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$2,047
Open positions0
Markets (closed)462 / 462
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$319
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 462 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $439 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 28 $363 −$363 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $643 −$94 -14%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $288 +$114 +40%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $74 −$74 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $2 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $270 +$80 +30%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $565 −$65 -12%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $328 +$82 +25%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $59 −$59 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $134 +$66 +50%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $190 +$10 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $168 +$32 +19%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $51 +$64 +127%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $306 −$56 -18%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $247 −$47 -19%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $50 +$52 +105%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $309 −$59 -19%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $90 +$60 +67%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 18 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 Winner May 18 $158 −$10 -6%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner May 18 $151 −$31 -20%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner May 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 18 $78 −$78 -100%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 17 $10 +$14 +138%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $177 −$13 -7%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 16 $462 +$78 +17%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner May 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner May 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $64 −$4 -7%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $59 +$100 +169%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner May 16 $64 +$96 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $440 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 100¢ $439 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 66¢ $174 17h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 66¢ $3 17h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 66¢ $74 17h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 66¢ $16 17h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 66¢ $96 17h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $390 19h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $402 19h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $288 20h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 46¢ $46 20h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 46¢ $43 20h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 46¢ $46 20h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 46¢ $69 20h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 46¢ $3 20h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 46¢ $4 20h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 46¢ $43 20h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL MODUS 17¢ $2 41h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 16¢ $2 41h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $350 43h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 45¢ $74 45h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 77¢ $270 45h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 80¢ $38 2d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 80¢ $16 2d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 80¢ $27 2d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 80¢ $312 2d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 80¢ $8 2d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $410 2d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 80¢ $132 2d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Virtus.pro 32¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records