Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2aa5…958e world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$57 (+5%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate55%24W / 20L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$9
other 20% −$2
sports 9% +$28
weather 3% +$10
politics 1% +$12
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 10% -8.0%
≤30d 19 +0.4% -9.1% 37% 5% -8.5%
≤90d 19 +0.4% -9.1% 37% 5% -8.5%
all 44 +7.9% -2.4% 55% 14% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 14% -5.4%
10% -11.7% 11% -14.5%
15% -20.2% 11% -22.7%
20% -28.1% 9% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.96 per $1 lost it wins $9.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses24 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage483d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $55 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $61 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $53 +$7 +14%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $101 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $144 +$4 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $44 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $11 $0 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $52 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $46 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $26 −$1 -4%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $2 $0 +8%
Will Jayson Tatum play in Game 5? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Did Kamala buy ads on Majority Report? Mar 31 $59 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 31 $59 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 25 $25 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $1 $0 +6%
Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Mar 20 $22 +$1 +4%
Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern Mar 20 $10 +$14 +133%
UNLV vs. San José State Mar 20 $19 +$14 +72%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Feb 26 $22 $0 +0%
St. Louis vs. Davidson Feb 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on February 25? Feb 25 $13 +$9 +73%
New Mexico vs. San Diego State Feb 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $1 $0 +36%
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Feb 25 $6 +$12 +201%
Will Auburn win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 24 $3 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $55 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $12 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $13 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $55 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $55 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $55 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $61 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $61 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 66¢ $53 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $53 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $53 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $44 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $40 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $14 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $18 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records