Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2A 0x2aa4…1677 crypto 707 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,131 (+8%) realized +$6,131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate86%610W / 97L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$873
other 1% −$65
world 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -12.9% -21.2% 83% 9% -13.3%
≤30d 80 -13.1% -21.3% 82% 9% -12.9%
≤90d 707 -3.3% -12.5% 86% 21% -10.7%
all 707 -3.3% -12.5% 86% 21% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 21% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 8% -19.2%
15% -28.6% 4% -27.0%
20% -35.6% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$46 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses610 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)707 / 707
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$108
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 707 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $250 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $160 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $125 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $125 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $250 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $396 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $125 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $64 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $55 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $50 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $297 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records