Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2aa1…1ea8 sports 842 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$21,775 (-8%) realized −$21,775 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%408W / 709L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day49.9pace
Fees−$2,916est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$16,132
other 21% −$9,379
crypto 3% +$810
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 379 -73.1% -75.7% 11% 9% -71.3%
≤30d 706 -36.8% -42.8% 33% 29% -46.6%
≤90d 1117 -28.1% -35.0% 37% 32% -29.8%
all 1117 -28.1% -35.0% 37% 32% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.0% 32% -29.8%
10% ← realistic here -41.2% 27% -36.6%
15% -46.9% 22% -42.7%
20% -52.1% 18% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$174 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21,775
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses408 / 709
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$2,916
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1117 / 842
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$308
Trades / day49.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1117 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $162 −$162 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $381 −$365 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $78 −$78 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $217 −$217 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $264 −$264 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $475 −$475 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $219 −$219 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $218 −$218 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on March 27? Jun 20 $167 −$167 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-04-13? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $483 −$483 -100%
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-04-12? Jun 20 $213 −$213 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $177 −$177 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $98 −$74 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $306 −$306 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $580 −$580 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $500 48m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $16 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $71 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $18 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $14 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $22 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $120 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $67 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $24 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 79¢ $664 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 79¢ $41 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 79¢ $2 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 78¢ $678 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 78¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $24 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 24¢ $360 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 24¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $772 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 74¢ $14 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 74¢ $362 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY No 94¢ $22 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $7 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $688 14h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $798 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $574 15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 95¢ $253 15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 88¢ $146 15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 88¢ $150 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records