Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2A 0x2aa1…dba8 sports 965 markets active 1h ago coverage 379d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,771 (-9%) realized −$14,831 · open +$60
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%460W / 478L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$262est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$414
7 days+$814
14 days−$5,392
30 days−$48,299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$9,477
sports 41% −$1,136
world 3% −$259
politics 2% −$147
culture 2% +$1,268
crypto 2% −$1,811
tech 1% +$142
weather 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +19.6% +8.2% 61% 59% -2.1%
≤30d 405 -46.6% -51.7% 27% 27% -70.1%
≤90d 405 -46.6% -51.7% 27% 27% -70.1%
all 938 -7.2% -16.0% 49% 49% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 49% -15.8%
10% -24.1% 48% -23.8%
15% -31.4% 45% -31.2%
20% -38.1% 37% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +20% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$148 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

379d coverage
Net worth$1,233
Realized−$14,831
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses460 / 478
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$262
Open positions7
Markets (closed)938 / 965
History coverage379d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 938 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 60¢ $338 $343 +$5 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $148 $241 +$93 (+62%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $125 $163 +$38 (+31%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $154 $158 +$3 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $184 $147 −$36 (-20%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 44¢ 44¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $127 $86 −$41 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$104 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $190 +$133 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $110 −$108 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 AND Will United Sta Jun 19 $193 +$165 +85%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 AND Will Australia Jun 19 $301 +$228 +76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 AND Will Switz Jun 18 $50 +$40 +80%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Bosnia and He Jun 18 $50 +$54 +110%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $157 +$147 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 +$40 +79%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$19 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06 Jun 18 $299 +$166 +55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $480 −$473 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $63 −$62 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $99 +$114 +115%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 202 Jun 18 $100 +$53 +53%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $190 +$97 +51%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $110 +$133 +121%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $100 +$101 +101%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $80 −$78 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $252 −$248 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $192 −$189 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17 Jun 17 $404 +$260 +64%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 +$209 +104%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $151 +$64 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $13 +$30 +226%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $233 −$40 -17%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $128 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $157 +$89 +57%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $69 +$125 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $177 +$114 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 +$22 +130%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $275 +$216 +79%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $49 +$21 +44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $380 +$195 +51%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $160 −$158 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $236 −$236 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $69 −$3 -5%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $406 −$401 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $140 +$102 +73%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $109 +$110 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$83 +167%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $253 +$131 +52%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $193 +$153 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $143 −$141 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$2 -5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $130 −$127 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $253 +$246 +97%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $96 +$185 +193%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 202 BUY 54¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026- BUY 56¢ $198 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $108 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $98 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both BUY 55¢ $98 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY 50¢ $200 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $234 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY 60¢ $185 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $110 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 65¢ $201 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY 67¢ $199 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $190 9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Australia: BUY 52¢ $3 25h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 AND Will United Sta BUY 53¢ $193 26h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 AND Will Australia BUY 56¢ $301 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Australia win on 2026-06 BUY 47¢ $169 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $20 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $50 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $50 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 AND Will Switz BUY 55¢ $50 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Bosnia and He BUY 47¢ $50 37h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland w BUY 29¢ $60 37h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $107 37h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $178 45h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $63 45h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026 BUY 47¢ $254 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $302 45h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06 BUY 64¢ $299 45h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 46¢ $99 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 202 BUY 65¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,233.33 · official $1,723.75 · 2362 history records