Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:44:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2A
0x2aa1…6ebd
crypto · 459 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$427 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$424 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized−$424
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses303 / 150
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)453 / 459
History coverage89d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 5 History 453 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$124
14 days−$492
30 days−$424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Damián Bobadilla: 1+ assists No 93¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 95¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals No 95¢ 84¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals No 96¢ 82¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Lewis Ferguson: 1+ goals No 95¢ 71¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: AC Goianiense 0 - 1 CR Brasil? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Ivan Bašić: 1+ assists Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 Week of June 8 Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $230-$235 on the final day of trading of t Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $400-$405 on the final day of trading of th Jun 12 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $350? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Alphonso Davies: 2+ goals Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $550 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $126 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Eom Jisung: 2+ goals Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Oswin Appollis: 2+ goals Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $13 +$2 +13%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +24%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 26% −$81
other 17% −$127
tech 17% +$1
sports 15% −$125
weather 13% +$7
finance 7% −$67
world 4% −$35
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lewis Ferguson: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $5 2m
Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: AC Goianiense 0 - 1 CR Brasil? SELL No 99¢ $5 6h
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $5 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 8h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 Week of June 8 SELL No 98¢ $0 8h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 Week of June 8 SELL No 98¢ $5 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 9h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $230-$235 on the final day of trading of t SELL No 95¢ $6 9h
Exact Score: AC Goianiense 0 - 1 CR Brasil? BUY No 95¢ $5 9h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $400-$405 on the final day of trading of th SELL No 50¢ $3 10h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 10h
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $350? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 10h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $400-$405 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 76¢ $5 11h
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 11h
Ivan Bašić: 1+ assists BUY No 97¢ $5 12h
Alphonso Davies: 2+ goals SELL No 99¢ $5 12h
Damián Bobadilla: 1+ assists BUY No 93¢ $5 13h
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $350? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 13h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 14h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $550 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 14h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 75¢ $5 14h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $550 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 82¢ $5 14h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $230-$235 on the final day of trading of t BUY No 80¢ $5 15h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $126 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 15h
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S SELL ZETA DIVISION 100¢ $5 17h
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 18h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $126 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 -14.3% -22.5% 75% 26% -22.0%
≤30d 453 -14.5% -22.7% 67% 28% -15.5%
≤90d 453 -14.5% -22.7% 67% 28% -15.5%
all 453 -14.5% -22.7% 67% 28% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 28% -15.5%
10% -30.1% 13% -23.6%
15% -36.8% 5% -31.0%
20% -43.0% 3% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.54 · official $22.54 (match) · 1391 history records