Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2aa0…c28f other 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%13W / 216L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$34
sports 19% −$16
politics 8% −$8
economics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$6
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 229 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses13 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)229 / 229
History coverage128d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 229 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $357 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $278 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $370 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $187 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $809 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $121 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $383 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $384 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $698 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $669 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $205 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $454 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $137 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $258 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $341 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $123 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $433 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $456 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $135 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $386 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $373 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $384 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $744 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $214 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $292 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $614 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $121 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $498 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 3h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $52 3h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $52 4h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 10h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 12h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 13h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $53 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 23h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 28h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 30h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 40h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 42h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 47h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 3d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 3d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 3d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1303 history records