Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2A 0x2a9f…73a7 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+3%) realized +$39 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$153
sports 16% −$27
crypto 8% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.1% -14.2% 55% 55% -7.1%
≤30d 11 -5.1% -14.2% 55% 55% -7.1%
≤90d 11 -5.1% -14.2% 55% 55% -7.1%
all 11 -5.1% -14.2% 55% 55% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 55% -7.1%
10% -22.4% 55% -16.0%
15% -29.9% 55% -24.1%
20% -36.8% 27% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$69 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage6d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 −$26 -26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 41¢ $75 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $101 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.01 · official $208.01 (match) · 21 history records