Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a9d…972d world 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$1
other 7% $0
culture 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
weather 1% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 17% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 7 -13.7% -21.9% 14% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 15 -6.1% -15.0% 33% 0% -9.0%
all 25 -4.8% -13.9% 44% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 0% -9.5%
10% -22.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage491d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 25 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $6 $0 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $2 $0 -3%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $30 −$1 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $32 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $13 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 28 $7 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Os Mar 21 $5 −$1 -22%
Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday? Mar 20 $9 $0 +4%
Will "Better Man" win Best Visual Effects at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on March 2? Mar 02 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 02 $11 $0 -3%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $11 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $31 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $34 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 43h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 31d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $32 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $32 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 43¢ $19 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 43¢ $13 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 43¢ $32 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 20¢ $13 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $19 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records