Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2A 0x2a9c…2aee other 207 markets active 0h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,805 (-4%) realized −$1,846 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate55%102W / 85L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,872now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$171
7 days−$167
14 days−$178
30 days−$3,157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$2,159
politics 20% −$1,342
sports 14% +$1,222
crypto 9% +$252
culture 2% −$265
tech 1% +$503
world 1% −$15
economics 0% +$17
finance 0% −$34
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -19.7% -27.4% 60% 53% -18.5%
≤30d 26 -32.8% -39.2% 46% 42% -46.8%
≤90d 38 -5.2% -14.2% 55% 47% -43.1%
all 187 -2.0% -11.3% 55% 33% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 33% -13.8%
10% -19.8% 21% -22.1%
15% -27.6% 15% -29.6%
20% -34.7% 11% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$84 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$1,872
Realized−$1,846
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses102 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions20
Markets (closed)187 / 207
History coverage246d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Yes 14¢ 28¢ $160 $305 +$145 (+90%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $160 $300 +$140 (+88%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $210 $275 +$64 (+31%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 22¢ $230 $115 −$115 (-50%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $100 $70 −$30 (-30%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $80 $69 −$11 (-13%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $120 $66 −$54 (-45%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $90 $56 −$34 (-38%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 48¢ 6¢ $57 $7 −$49 (-87%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $4 −$7 (-68%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $301 +$56 +18%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $128 −$128 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$92 +46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $401 +$25 +6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $40 +$15 +38%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $61 +$33 +54%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $110 +$16 +14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day Jun 02 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $353 −$353 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 31 $245 +$37 +15%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $508 +$492 +97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,607 −$1,059 -66%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,115 −$608 -55%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2,036 −$1,417 -70%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $25 +$5 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 14 $160 +$1 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 12 $144 +$17 +12%
Anthropic CEO arrested? May 12 $23 −$17 -74%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 09 $28 +$14 +52%
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15? Apr 24 $288 +$34 +12%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 28? Apr 24 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 2? Apr 03 $27 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2AM ET Apr 02 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 02 $3 +$4 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 02 $2 +$11 +564%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 16 $62 −$58 -94%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 28? Feb 28 $10 −$6 -59%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Feb 26 $59 −$19 -32%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 26 $93 +$3 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 24? Feb 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $10 +$85 +851%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 23 $22 +$55 +249%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 23 $56 +$508 +912%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Feb 05 $109 −$109 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 25m
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $357 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $123 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 18¢ $174 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 7¢ $62 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 6¢ $82 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $92 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $123 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $234 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $128 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $128 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $40 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $401 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $126 5d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $201 5d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $301 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 96¢ $24 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 81¢ $20 5d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 88¢ $100 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,871.95 · official $1,872.16 (match) · 1153 history records