Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:53:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

2A 0x2a9b…a980 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$49 (+5%) realized +$50 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%6W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$64per market

Trades / day10.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-29.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-21.6%	-29.0%	40%	40%	-6.5%
≤30d	15	-21.6%	-29.0%	40%	40%	-6.5%
≤90d	15	-21.6%	-29.0%	40%	40%	-6.5%
all	15	-21.6%	-29.0%	40%	40%	-6.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-29.0%	40%	-6.5%
10%	-35.8%	33%	-15.5%
15%	-42.0%	27%	-23.6%
20%	-47.7%	27%	-31.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 81% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -22% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -54% → late +7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$61 vs −$38 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.06 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$149

Realized+$50

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses6 / 9

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage3d

Avg bet$64

Trades / day10.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	60¢	60¢	$150	$149	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Jun 28	$21	−$6	-26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Jun 28	$247	+$74	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Jun 28	$103	−$100	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 28	$16	−$15	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Jun 28	$21	+$23	+110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Jun 28	$41	+$25	+61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Jun 28	$21	−$20	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 28	$120	+$220	+184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Jun 28	$17	−$16	-95%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs	Jun 28	$31	−$14	-47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 28	$10	+$2	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 25	$16	−$15	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 25	$52	−$50	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 25	$131	−$105	-81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$19	+73%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$154	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	SELL Down	10¢	$16	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$21	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$21	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$21	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$103	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	SELL Up	44¢	$75	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$103	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$103	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$16	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	SELL Down	82¢	$67	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$115	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$5	3h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs	BUY Sharks	41¢	$20	4h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs	SELL Sharks	66¢	$16	5h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs	BUY Sharks	42¢	$10	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	SELL Up	46¢	$12	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$5	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$5	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$5	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.75 · official $153.75 · 40 history records