Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:31:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a96…b382 sports 1176 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,291 (+3%) realized +$1,269 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%573W / 496L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$302est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$284
14 days+$521
30 days+$469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$476
other 14% −$39
world 10% +$118
politics 3% +$188
crypto 1% +$73
culture 1% +$40
finance 1% +$16
tech 0% +$136
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 +0.7% -8.9% 64% 59% +2.5%
≤30d 541 +0.0% -9.5% 55% 52% -6.1%
≤90d 934 -0.5% -10.0% 54% 52% -7.1%
all 1069 -0.9% -10.3% 54% 52% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 52% -7.0%
10% -18.9% 46% -15.9%
15% -26.7% 40% -24.1%
20% -33.9% 33% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$27 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$2,324
Realized+$1,269
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses573 / 496
Est. fees paid−$302
Open positions107
Markets (closed)1069 / 1176
History coverage102d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 107 History 1069 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $69 $78 +$9 (+13%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 67¢ 97¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+44%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29? No 87¢ 98¢ $59 $66 +$7 (+12%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30? No 87¢ 91¢ $59 $62 +$3 (+4%)
US bank failure by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $56 $61 +$5 (+10%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 80¢ 99¢ $49 $61 +$12 (+24%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 62¢ 100¢ $36 $58 +$22 (+61%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 100¢ $47 $57 +$10 (+21%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 49¢ 100¢ $27 $56 +$29 (+105%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 65¢ 99¢ $34 $52 +$18 (+52%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 90¢ $44 $47 +$2 (+5%)
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 87¢ $34 $46 +$12 (+33%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $38 $36 −$1 (-4%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 69¢ 98¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+43%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 80¢ 82¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 92¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+8%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Kayla Day vs Madison Keys Madison Keys 90¢ 90¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage BetBoom Team 73¢ 72¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 81¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+7%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $29 $33 +$3 (+12%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 80¢ $31 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 50¢ $32 $31 −$2 (-5%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 75¢ 76¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 272 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $39 +$15 +40%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $31 +$5 +14%
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 29 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $12 −$11 -98%
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $28 +$27 +97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $20 +$15 +76%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $11 +$5 +40%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $27 −$27 -99%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $22 −$21 -99%
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) Jun 28 $14 −$14 -98%
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 28 $6 −$5 -90%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $41 +$4 +10%
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m Jun 28 $5 +$18 +345%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $38 +$22 +57%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $27 +$5 +20%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 +$2 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $8 +$2 +18%
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31? Jun 27 $25 +$3 +11%
Tatjana Maria vs. Madison Keys: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $12 −$11 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -98%
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? Jun 27 $5 −$4 -84%
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $41 +$14 +34%
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $15 +$4 +31%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $42 +$21 +50%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $35 +$9 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$6 +20%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 27 $24 +$15 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$17 +70%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $31 +$12 +40%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 27 $26 +$4 +17%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $18 +$10 +57%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 27 $20 +$15 +76%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 27 $26 +$12 +46%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 27 $19 −$19 -98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $19 −$19 -99%
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater th Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +36%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 26 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $40 −$40 -99%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 26 $32 +$28 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 59¢ $12 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Taylor Townsend vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 86¢ $27 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Austria 51¢ $5 2h
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 2h
Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Quentin Halys BUY Quentin Halys 58¢ $14 2h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 55¢ $19 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 59¢ $21 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Veronika Erjavec vs Leolia Jeanjean BUY Leolia Jeanjean 64¢ $23 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Vilius Gaubas BUY Kyrian Jacquet 70¢ $25 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Morocco 83¢ $28 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees BUY Detroit Tigers 45¢ $17 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Kayla Day vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 90¢ $34 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 56¢ $22 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play- BUY Karmine Corp 75¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group S BUY BetBoom Team 73¢ $34 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 46¢ $29 2h
Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 21h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 82¢ $31 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 23h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30? BUY No 87¢ $59 23h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29? BUY No 87¢ $59 23h
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 27h
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 27h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Antonia Ruzic 40¢ $5 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 76¢ $5 27h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $27 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,323.54 · official $2,320.89 (match) · 2154 history records