Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2A 0x2a95…4243 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+4%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$11
other 28% $0
politics 6% $0
culture 5% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 3 +6.8% -3.3% 67% 33% -3.9%
≤90d 3 +6.8% -3.3% 67% 33% -3.9%
all 22 +1.0% -8.6% 59% 5% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 5% -6.1%
10% -17.4% 0% -15.1%
15% -25.4% 0% -23.3%
20% -32.7% 0% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.94 per $1 lost it wins $14.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage460d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $87 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $51 +$10 +20%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bayern Munich vs. Auckland City end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National minority? May 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $6 $0 +3%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $12 $0 +2%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 15 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $49 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $49 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $30 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $9 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $37 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $36 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $32 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $38 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $38 25d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 98¢ $1 353d
Will Bayern Munich vs. Auckland City end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $2 369d
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? BUY No 99¢ $2 386d
Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National minority? BUY No 96¢ $2 411d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 98¢ $1 425d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? SELL No 99¢ $6 427d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 98¢ $5 427d
Will Rumble buy TikTok? SELL No 96¢ $5 427d
Will Rumble buy TikTok? BUY No 96¢ $5 428d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? SELL No 99¢ $5 428d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? BUY No 97¢ $6 429d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 96¢ $6 429d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? BUY No 98¢ $5 429d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 95¢ $5 430d
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 96¢ $6 431d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 SELL No 98¢ $6 431d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 94¢ $5 431d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 60 history records