Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2A 0x2a94…18a0 crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$41 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$163
14 days+$163
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$46
other 8% +$134
politics 5% −$35
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -12.1% -20.5% 38% 38% +26.6%
≤30d 13 -12.1% -20.5% 38% 38% +26.6%
≤90d 13 -12.1% -20.5% 38% 38% +26.6%
all 32 -20.2% -27.8% 41% 38% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 38% +1.5%
10% -34.7% 38% -8.2%
15% -41.0% 38% -17.1%
20% -46.8% 34% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$16 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)32 / 39
History coverage130d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $45 $10 −$35 (-79%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Down 23¢ 12¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $130 +$99 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$10 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$32 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$134 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 11 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 11 $30 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 11? Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 10 $10 +$10 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 10 $20 +$12 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 10 $15 −$9 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 10 $10 +$10 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 10 $20 +$15 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 10 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on February 10? Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 09 $20 +$23 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 23¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $129 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $58 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 44¢ $24 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 7h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $42 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $20 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $20 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.00 · official $65.00 (match) · 149 history records